何时停止等待

WHEN TO STOP LOOKING

WHEN TO STOP LOOKING 何时停止等待

后端公式Backend Formula
样本探索
EXPLORE
EXPLORE
样本探索
阈值决断
THRESHOLD
THRESHOLD
阈值决断
果断跃迁
LEAP
LEAP
果断跃迁
你预计会评估多少个选项?
HOW MANY OPTIONS DO YOU EXPECT TO EVALUATE?
输入你预计会遇到的候选数量,例如职位、房源、供应商、合伙人。 Enter the number of roles, homes, vendors, partners, or candidates you expect to compare.
适用场景 求职 · 租房 · 选供应商 · 找合伙人
边界条件 不适合一次性二选一、纯情绪问题、不可比较的问题
Best For Job search · Housing · Vendors · Partners
Boundaries Not for one-off binary choices, pure emotional states, or non-comparable decisions
为什么是 37%?
Why 37%?

这是最优停止问题(Optimal Stopping)的经典策略:在不可回头、按顺序出现的选择中,先观察前约 37% 的样本,只记录当前最优;之后遇到第一个超过历史最优的选项,就停止等待并行动。

This comes from the classic optimal stopping problem: when options arrive sequentially and you cannot go back, observe roughly the first 37% without committing, remember the best-so-far, then take the first later option that beats it.

Optimal Stopping · Secretary Problem · Explore / Exploit
最佳观察阈值
LOOK THEN LEAP THRESHOLD
--
理论最优成功概率 Theoretical success probability 36.78%
第一阶段 · 观察期
PHASE 1 · OBSERVE

观察前 -- 个选项,只记录,不承诺。

Observe the first -- options without committing.

第二阶段 · 临界跃迁
PHASE 2 · LEAP

过了第 -- 个后,遇到第一个超过历史最优的选项,就停止等待并行动。

After option --, take the first option that beats your best-so-far.

今天的行动
TODAY'S ACTION

记录你已经评估到第几个选项。如果已过阈值,开始执行 Leap Rule。

Record which option number you are currently on. If you've passed the threshold, begin the Leap Rule.

等待输入 AWAITING INPUT