Decision Engine 本地计算器Local Calculator

概率杠杆

Probabilistic Leverage

在不确定中决定下注规模。 Size the bet when certainty is impossible. Size the bet when certainty is impossible. 在不确定中决定下注规模。

什么时候用它？ When to use it

  • 你有可估计的胜率、收益和损失。You can estimate probability, upside, and downside.
  • 你需要控制投入比例，而不是凭情绪 all-in。You need exposure sizing, not an emotional all-in.
  • 输出是下注边界和今天的行动，不是确定答案。The output is a boundary and action, not certainty.
输入你的胜率、收益、损失或机会判断 Enter your probability, upside, downside, or opportunity estimate
杠杆建议 Leverage Guidance
输入参数后，这里会输出诊断、解释、今天的行动和边界提示。 After input, this will show diagnosis, interpretation, today’s action, and boundary note.

为什么是 Kelly？ Why Kelly?

Kelly Criterion 用于在不确定但可估计概率的场景下，控制下注比例。它不是鼓励冒险，而是防止在优势不足时过度投入。 The Kelly Criterion helps size exposure when probability can be estimated. It does not encourage risk-taking; it prevents overbetting when the edge is weak.

参考：Reference: Kelly Criterion · Expected Value · Risk of Ruin